Can the Islanders break through?

The last time we saw the New York Islanders in action, they took the ice for a do-or-die Game 7 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference Final. If you’ve been living in Amish Country or otherwise completely detached from the world since June, I’ll fill you in: they died.

Tampa, for the second consecutive year, rolled a far inferior opponent in the Cup Final. Islander fans, for the second consecutive year, spent the offseason stewing over what could have been. Putting aside as much bias as I possibly can, it’s truly not difficult to envision a scenario where the Isles hoist one of the last two Cups, if not both.

But Rome wasn’t built in a day, nor were the Lightning, or any other Stanley Cup champion for that matter. This is year four of the Lou Lamoriello-Barry Trotz era, and the Islanders are knocking down the door. Tampa made the playoffs in five of six years before finally claiming the Cup, including an excruciating loss in the Final and two in the ECF. Before them, the Blues spent the better part of a decade getting dispatched in the first or second round before they claimed hockey’s top prize in 2019. Ovechkin and the Caps were plagued by Cup jokes and playoff disappointments until they climbed the mountain. With the possible exception of the 2011–12 Kings, every champion in the last decade entered their title year with the bad taste of repeated playoff shortcomings firmly in mind.

And that brings us to the Islanders as we know them today. Through the first three years of the Lamoriello-Trotz ticket, the club has transformed from crap, to Cinderella, to contender. Expectations were so low heading into 2018–19 that even fighting for a playoff spot would have been exciting — they earned 103 points and swept Pittsburgh in Round 1. In the fever-dreamish 2020 bubble New York took a massive leap forward again, but ultimately came a few inches short of forcing a Game 7 in Tampa that could have sent them to the SCF. Fans expected, and got, more of the same in 2020–21. Another deep run was cut short, but the Islanders finally turned heads league-wide. Depending on who you ask, the Islanders are the clear-cut favorite to win the toughest division in hockey, and a third-round third date with Tampa feels somewhat inevitable.

The Isles have taken their lumps and checked off, more or less, every hockey cliche box necessary to be a bona fide championship team. Past deep runs and a core with extensive playoff experience? Check. Top-tier coaching, elite goaltending, and stalwart defense? Check, check, check. And the offense, the Islanders’ Achilles heel since Trotz took over, looks better than any time in recent memory. So now’s the time, right?

The path to the Cup, on paper, is wide open. The typical giants of the division — Washington and Pittsburgh — aren’t the forces they used to be. Carolina is the stiffest competition in the Metro, and the Canes took steps back in net and on defense this offseason. Home ice in the first round is certainly on the table, as is the division crown. As for finally vanquishing Tampa Bay, the defending champs were forced to retool their entire bottom six this offseason, sacrificing some of the depth that helped them succeed. They still have candidates for the Vezina, Norris, Hart, Richard, and Art Ross on their team, but this is clearly the weakest Bolts roster in years.

I, like many other Islander fans, have convinced myself that this team will at least make it to the Cup Final this year. Whether that means a date with Robin Lehner’s Knights, Devon Toews’ Avs, or another top Western Conference team, the Islanders have made it clear that they’re good enough to win it all. Now, with my anxious word vomit out of the way, here are three big predictions for the Islander season:

1. Mathew Barzal ascends. The 24-year-old Barzal is entering his fifth full NHL season and coming off arguably his most impressive and complete campaign. Last year, he produced at a 25 goal, 41 assist pace (extrapolated over a full season) despite missing Anders Lee on his left wing for most of the year and the playoffs. He also ticked up his faceoff percentage to a still-bad-but-more-respectable 43.4 percent, up from 41.6 each of the past two seasons. With consistency and health on his wings, Barzal could return close to his point-per-game form from his rookie season, while playing a more all-around game than he ever could have imagined under Doug Weight.
2. Ilya Sorokin, not Semyon Varlamov, is the Isles postseason goalie. This is not meant to be a knock on Varlamov, who was lights out last season while earning a Vezina nomination and has been an upper-echelon goalie since joining the Islanders. But Sorokin was brilliant last year, winning 13 of his final 19 starts in the regular season with a .927 save percentage. He then saved the Islanders from elimination in Round 1 before settling back behind Varly. This tandem is one of, if not the best in the league this year, so there’ll be no bad choice come playoff time, but Sorokin should continue to grow and establish himself as a true #1 NHL goalie.
3. 10+ different defensemen will suit up this year, but it won’t make a difference. Last year, the Isles were tremendously lucky to avoid any real injuries on defense. Pelech, Pulock, Leddy and Mayfield played every game, Greene played all but one, and Dobson appeared in 46 of 56. Odds are that won’t happen again this year, particularly with an aging (but shockingly durable) Zdeno Chara filling Leddy’s spot. We might see weeks-long stretches of Thomas Hickey, Sebastian Aho, or Robin Salo on the blue line, but I have too much faith in Trotz to actually consider defense a question mark this year.