Can the Rangers evolve their offensive style?
Regardless of the sport, every team has their bread and butter plays off of which their offense flows. These foundational plays or concepts exist to serve as a baseline and all other offensive chances can come through this primary method.
The most obvious example is using zone run concepts in football to set up play-action passes. If an offensive line is controlling the line of scrimmage, the defense overcommits to stopping the run, making them vulnerable for the pass.
In hockey, it isn’t as much of a set play as a style. For the most part, teams have a coherent identity and try to get all of the players to fall into that structure. Most offenses fall into one of two baskets, creating off of the rush or the forecheck.
Creating off the rush requires forcing the other team to turn the puck over and springing forwards quickly towards the offensive zone. This requires defensemen who have the strong passing or skating ability necessary to get the defense off-balance.
High-end players like Connor McDavid or Mat Barzal can singlehandedly drive play and create chances off of the rush. These chances are typically more dangerous than ones created off of the forecheck because of where the shot attempts come from.
On the other hand, the forecheck style synonymous with the Daryl Sutter Los Angeles Kings teams of last decade typically results in a quantity over quality style. The forwards chip the puck in from the neutral zone, recover the puck below the goal line and engage the cycle.
The offensive team will move the puck along the boards with a forward parked in front of the net. When the situation permits, someone at the half boards or the point will take a shot in hopes of generating a rebound or the puck finding the net through traffic.
Serious contenders in today’s NHL can employ either style and still be effective. The two teams with the best odds to win the Stanley Cup at the moment, the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning, each use a different style.
Part of the beauty in hockey is the fact that there’s no one way to play the game successfully. There is no optimized play that teams focus on like the three-pointer in basketball, home run in baseball or play-action pass in football.
This brings us to a New York Rangers team that’s struggled to produce offense efficiently. While the team has the seventh most goals in the league at five on five, it also is 4–15 in one-goal games. The telling statistic is comparing the Rangers' expected goals to actual goals.
While New York is only creating 49.36 percent of scoring chances that would be expected to result in goals, the team is actually scoring 53.23 percent of the goals at five on five. With the team exceeding expectations to score and still struggling to win close games, it’s worth examining the team’s offense deeper.
One year turnaround
Remember the bread and butter talk? Well, the Rangers picked up different ingredients at the store in the offseason because the team is playing at a slower overall pace. This change in tempo overwhelmingly improved the defense, but it may have come at the cost of offense.
Pursuing a slower game tempo can sometimes be referred to as a “low event game” because there are fewer chances to score. While the Rangers conceding almost half a goal fewer per game is extremely encouraging, the slow down in offense is a cause for concern.
The flashes of offensive explosion against certain opponents shows the potential. Even with a more well-rounded roster than last year, New York’s underlying numbers indicate a change in philosophy.
Two weeks ago on my show, “The Upper Bowl GM Podcast,” analytics writer for EPRinkside, JFresh Hockey, attributed the change in tempo to the subtraction of defenseman Tony DeAngelo.
Before DeAngelo’s exile to southern New Jersey, he was playing upwards of 15 minutes per night at five on five. In his minutes, the Rangers were creating 57 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time. However, this came at the cost of 61 scoring chances against per 60.
The rate of 57 scoring chances per 60 minutes was the highest of any defenseman on the team and fifth overall. Without DeAngelo’s high tempo transition play in 25 % of five on five minutes, it was only natural New York’s style would slow down.
The fire wagon style of hockey the 2019–2020 team played was overly reliant on goaltending and unsustainable shooting luck. There were lots of scoring chances for the Rangers but it came at the cost of team defense.
Now, the team is stuck in a transitionary period where it lacks a coherent offensive identity. The veteran players like Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich, Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome play one way. All of the other forwards play another style.
While the team is scoring goals, it’s not at a high enough pace and it's too inconsistent.
Overall, the Rangers have played 20 skaters at least 100 minutes of ice time this season. Of those 20, just 6 skaters create more rush chances per 60 than chances off of the forecheck. This would support the theory that the team is playing a slower style of offense.
Furthermore, every player aside from Panarin is skewed towards rush or forecheck-based offense. This can lead to the predictable nature that sets in and the inability of the team to find a goal when it’s chasing late in a game.
If the other team knows what type of chances the Rangers on the ice are going to try and create, it can actively take them away. This is why the New York Islanders are such a bad matchup for the Rangers. The Islanders control the middle of the ice at an elite level and don’t allow high danger chances.
The Rangers actively overpass in hopes of creating as dangerous a scoring chance as possible. Against a team like the Islanders that’s going to be clogging the dangerous areas, it’s effectively turning the puck over by design. That’s at least in part why the two shutouts looked so ugly over the weekend.
These high danger chances are extremely valuable, the Rangers shouldn’t be looking to settle for lower quality opportunities. The real key is the internal decision-making in the offensive zone with the puck. While the cross-seam pass creates a dangerous chance, it’s difficult to complete.
Sometimes, just keeping the puck moving is more valuable. First and foremost, if the Rangers are cycling the puck, the other team cannot possibly score because it doesn’t have the puck. The longer and more sustained the pressure in the cycle, the easier a subsequent cross-seam pass would be.
In the above heat map visualization, there’s a clear idea of where the Rangers are shooting from this season. The Panarin spot at the top of the left circle being the heaviest area of concentration shouldn’t be a surprise. However, compare the heat map to the one for the 2019–2020 season.
The 2019–2020 Rangers got the puck significantly closer to the net, and the most common shooting area was just at the edge of the crease from the right net mouth. So, not only is the team creating fewer scoring chances overall, that is trickling down into the quality of the chances as well.
I hate describing any player as lazy or stubborn, but it’s clear to some degree there is at the very least a disconnect between the coach and lineup. Few games go by without head coach David Quinn decrying his team’s habit of overpassing.
Meanwhile, the coach has repeatedly referred to the lack of a shooting mentality as a problem, often using the “east-west” shortcut as code in his Zoom conferences. After one game early last month Quinn said that not shooting the puck “has been a problem since I’ve been here.”
Yet, three years into Quinn’s tenure, the high-end players on the roster are actively playing a style contrary to what he asks of them. I don’t think the team’s offensive struggles are tied to this disconnect, however, I do think the offense is not efficient.
The most telling sign is the frequency of one and done zone entries. These are times which the Rangers enter the offensive zone, get a single shot on goal and lose control of the puck. While the single scoring opportunity is nice, individual shots from the perimeter aren’t very valuable.
In fact, there is such a thing as shooting too much in that case. Those low danger shots aren’t counted as such, but from a philosophical standpoint, should be thought of as turnovers. New York has way too much talent at forward to be struggling offensively. It features a Hart Trophy runner-up, four forwards that were at a point per game of production for the bulk of the season and three top ten draft picks.
On paper, this group should be able to control the tempo of any game. With the team’s improved defense as the backdrop, it in theory means the Rangers are in control of the puck more. This should be conducive to high-end offensive play from multiple lines at once.
While the 2021 season is effectively over, the team’s play down the stretch here will set the tone for the summer. If it continues to play in spurts, choosing when to play hard, it’ll continue to get outclassed most nights.
When things aren’t going well, it means pressing harder, not leaning into habits. For a Rangers team littered with talent that’s largely avoided criticism, the clock is about to start ticking. Quinn’s had three years to put together a plan, and the front office has decisions to make.
Soon, it won’t be “they’re the youngest team in the league,” it’ll be “they have all this young talent and cannot figure it out.” It’s up to the front office and coaching staff to find the best strategy for its players to win. Under Quinn, that’s yet to happen.
