Derek Jeter: The Modern Day MLB Hit King
The Hall of Fame shortstop ranks sixth all time in hits; will that ever change?
Baseball at its simplest form is this: a pitcher throws a ball towards a batter and the batter attempts to hit it.
Over time, the value of a hit has changed; not all hits are of equal value. Singles are valued differently from doubles or home runs and rightfully so. I am fully on board with the modern analytics of baseball as they greatly help determine a player’s true value on the baseball diamond. We can no longer simply look at a single stat like batting average as the sole indicator of a baseball player’s contributions. But it doesn’t mean we can’t discuss and banter about hits in general.
Pete Rose is the MLB Hit King, with a staggering 4,256 hits across 24 MLB seasons. He last played baseball in 1986. It is pretty safe to say the Rose will never relinquish that title. The current state of the MLB is focused around the three true outcomes of an at-bat. A walk, a home run, or a strikeout. Each is determined solely by the pitcher and the batter. The defense does not come into play. This has players focusing more on hitting home runs instead of simply getting on base, which leads to lower batting averages and fewer hits around baseball.
This brings us to Derek Jeter.
Derek Jeter was scheduled to give his Hall of Fame speech later this summer in Cooperstown, but this will have to wait another year as the ceremony was pushed back due to COVID-19. Jeter’s overall greatness and place in MLB history has been and will continue to be the topic of internet arguments for decades to come, without a doubt.
He is currently sixth all-time with 3,465 career hits. This doesn’t take into effect another 200 hits during the postseason, which ranks first in MLB history.
Longevity is a key variable in joining the all-time lists in MLB. Every player in the top 20 of the all-time hit list has played at least 20 years in the MLB except for Albert Pujols, who will begin his 20th year whenever baseball returns to action. Of those 20, only four have played after the calendar turned to the 21st century: Jeter, Pujols, Cal Ripken Jr. and Adrian Beltre.
(I do want to give a shout to Ichiro Suzuki who compiled 3,089 hits in the MLB and did so after coming over from Japan at age 27. He currently ranks 24th on the all-time list and would likely be in the Top 5 if he played his entire career in the MLB.)
In 1999, MLB teams broke the record for most hits in a season with 45,327. There are only three seasons in which MLB teams broke 45,000 hits in season: 1999, 2000 and 2006. The past decade (2010–2019) saw an average of 42,022 hits per season, which is a decrease from the previous decade (44,251 hits). The upcoming decade will likely maintain the downward trend as the focus on the three true outcomes continues to gain momentum.
So the question is will Derek Jeter ever move from the sixth spot or will he remain the Hit King for the Modern Era of Baseball?
Let’s examine some current MLB players and see if they have a shot at catching Jeter. We already determined that you will need to play for at least 20 years to have a shot. So guys like Charlie Blackmon, Ryan Braun, DJ LeMahieu and Whit Merrifield started their careers too late to be considered.
Players are ranked based on the number of hits already accumulated throughout their career.
Albert Pujols
Age: 40
Hits: 3,202
MLB seasons: 19
Pujols already ranks 15th all-time for hits but between Father Time catching up to him and COVID-19 shortening the 2020 season, things aren’t looking up for Sir Albert. He is, however, only 263 hits away from Jeter. He has two years on his contract but even with a full 2020 and 2021 season, Pujols likely comes up short. Last season he played 131 games and had 120 hits. Replicating two full seasons of that would put him 23 hits short after his age 41 season.
He might consider coming back in 2022, but given his age and injury history it’s hard to see him getting a contract at age 42 for what would be a part time DH role. A shortened 2020 season not only ends his hopes of catching Jeter; it likely also ends his slim hopes for 700 career home runs as he currently sits with 656.
Miguel Cabrera
Age: 37
Hits: 2,815
MLB seasons: 17
Cabrera burst onto the scene in 2003 as a 19 year-old, helping the Marlins win the World Series over Jeter and the Yankees. Since then he has amassed over 2,800 hits with the Marlins and Tigers. 2018 was the first time in his career he didn’t play at least 119 games (he was called up mid-season in ‘03). He bounced back nicely in 2019 to keep his name in this conversation.
He is under contract until 2023 and has vesting options until 2025 if he lands in the Top 10 in MVP voting, something he hasn’t done since 2015. If we assume he plays in 80% of the games left on his contract, that gives him 450 games remaining in his career to get 650 hits. His best three year stretch was 2011–2013, when Carbrera had 595 hits in 470 games. Miggy will get his 3,000 hits, but he likely won’t catch Pujols, let alone Jeter.
Robinson Cano
Age: 36
Hits: 2,570
MLB seasons: 15
Derek Jeter’s old double play partner for the New York Yankees. One of the smoothest swings in the game, Robbie Cano has been collecting hits since his rookie year in 2002. Cano was on a Hall of Fame path before being suspended by the MLB under their performance enhancing drug policy, not that failing a test should prohibit you from entering the HoF (but that is a whole other story). Cano is on pace for becoming the all-time hits, and home runs leader for a second baseman.
Does that mean he has a shot at Jeter? No, not really at all.
Like Cabrera, Cano is under contract until after the 2023 season. Meaning he likely has fewer than 500 games left in him. Losing half a season to his suspension (he had a broken wrist too) and another half to COVID-19 puts Cano’s 3K hits in jeopardy. If he managed to get another contract after the Mets’ deal is done and get to 20 seasons, he could pass Cabrera — but that also seems unlikely.
Starlin Castro
Age: 30
Hits: 1,617
MLB seasons: 10
Starlin Castro led all of baseball with 207 hits in his second season at the age of 21. That early start lands Castro on this list even though many wouldn’t consider him at first thought. He can be one of the those compilers we look back on in 30 years and say “ wow, can’t believe he had that many hits!”
2020 will be his age 30 season. He has played ten years already and if he were to duplicate his numbers for the next 10 years, he will have 3,234 hits. However, that is very unlikely as Castro will be fighting for at bats as time goes on. But, Castro did play all 162 games and record 172 hits last season, his most in seven years.
Jose Altuve
Age: 30
Hits: 1,568
MLB seasons: 9
From 2014–2017, Jose Altuve collected 845 hits, leading the MLB every season. He has missed some time the past two seasons to slow down his pace but Altuve is already halfway to 3K in only nine seasons. After winning three out of the last four batting titles, Altuve has seen his average start to dip. He finished 2019 under .300, but he did smash a career high 31 home runs.
Altuve’s downfall might be looking for the long ball too often moving forward. It is the way of the MLB, but in the long run it could prevent Altuve from entering the Top 10 list. If Altuve plays 11 more seasons with at least 174 hits per season that will get him past Jeter with 3,482 hits. He failed to reach the 174 mark the past two seasons and will not get there in 2020.
Mike Trout
Age: 28
Hits: 1,324
MLB seasons: 9
The man, the myth, the legend. Mike Trout is on pace to go down as the greatest baseball player of all time. So that means he has to pass Derek Jeter on the hit list, right? Well it is certainly possible but let’s not give him the crown just yet.
Trout entered baseball at 19 and after a mediocre 40 games his rookie year, he has been unstoppable. He’s finished in the top-five of MVP voting every year and it still seems unfair that he only has four MVP awards.
Trout is entering his prime and while the shortened 2020 season will slow him down, he will be difficult to stop. If he produces the same hit total for the next 11 years, it could be doable. Trout has spent time on the IL and has never topped 200 hits in a season.
He will have finished his current contract in 2030 with a low estimate of 2,941 hits. You can bet Trout will average more than 147 hits a season over the next 11 years. If he plays until he is 40 and averages 150 hits a season, that will put him at 3,274, still almost 200 shy of Jeter. But it leaves him within range if he goes all Trout on us the next few years.
Francisco Lindor
Age: 26
Hits: 835
MLB seasons: 5
It’s fitting to end the list with a shortstop. It would be even more fitting if Lindor ends up in pinstripes sometime over the next few seasons and chases Jeter in his own park. Lindor has only played in 717 games so it is hard to imagine what his stats will look like in five years, let alone 15. So far in his career he averaged 143 games a season with 167 hits. If he can do that for the next 15 years he will have 3,340 hits. He will be 41 years old and 125 hits short. Not an impossible task, but we have over a decade and a half before we will have to re-visit Lindor. Hopefully it will be a new Yankee legend chasing a legend of old.
There are several young players who fall in the Trout/ Lindor age range who all should continue to produce during their prime and make a run. Mookie Betts and Bryce Harper come to mind as the next two possibilities. Maybe it will be one of the up-and-coming stars like Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr, Gleyber Torres or Vlad Guerrero Jr.
As the sport continues to change the iconic milestones will change as well.
It will be very unlikely that we see another 300-win pitcher. The 500 HR mark will become more and more common as the ball flies out of the park at a record pace. It is possible that a majority of these players don’t make it to 3,000 hits, seeing as only 32 players have ever gotten there.
It is impossible to say no player will ever catch him, but for the past 35 years Derek holds the record for the most hits in baseball. Will that continue for 50 years or even 100 years? As time goes on and more Hall of Fame players end their career short of Jeter, his impact on the game should only grow.
Thoughts? Let me hear them on Twitter @AngelSteve89
