Taylor Hall, the trade market, and the Islanders’ needs
The Taylor Hall auction is underway, and a number of teams have begun lining up to place their bids. Most reports list the Avalanche, Predators, Coyotes, and Blues among the teams interested in landing the 2018 Hart Trophy winner. No insiders have yet to report whether or not the Islanders are involved thanks to the impenetrable Fort Lou, but whether or not they should be involved at all has sparked some debate.
There’s a lot to discuss even if the trade deadline isn't for another few months. Is Taylor Hall good enough to warrant what is sure to be a high price tag, both at the deadline and on July 1? Does Taylor Hall fit what the Islanders need, either as a rental or with an extension? And would landing Hall push this team over the edge from Cup contender to favorite?
There have been some questions raised about Hall’s game since his 39-goal, 93-point MVP performance two seasons ago. Since that season, Hall missed 49 games last season and has scored a good-not-great 23 points in 28 games this year. Plus, Hall has just five goals this season, an alarming regression for a player who never topped 30 outside of his Hart campaign. Injury history, age, and questions about which tier he falls into combine to make a compelling argument against spending assets for Hall, and certainly against ponying up a $70M+ offer in free agency.
But even with all that in mind, it’s hard to dispute that Hall remains a top 10 player at his position. Since 2013, Hall has produced 389 points in 419 games, just shy of a point per game. Only eight wingers (Kane, Kucherov, Panarin, Ovechkin, Gaudreau, Marchand, Pastrnak and Wheeler) have produced at a higher clip in that span. Hall isn’t as much of a game-changer as Mark Stone, a slightly less productive forward with a great two-way game, but his position as the most highly coveted player this season is well warranted.
Hall has never exactly played on the best lines either. In New Jersey, he’s played primarily with Nico Hischier and Kyle Palmieri and in Edmonton he was commonly with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle. All of these players are above average, but Hall is clearly the best player of the bunch by a wide margin. While Hall has always floated around a point per game, Eberle is the only consistent linemate that cracked 60 points with him. The advanced stats bear out that Hall does more for his linemates than they do for him as well.
Statistically speaking, Hall is worth the while — perhaps more so as a rental than in a sign-and-trade. The Islanders will have $17 million in cap space this offseason with Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews needing new contracts. There was, of course, a plan to pay John Tavares or Artemi Panarin upwards of $10M for 7–8 years so Lou Lamoriello could theoretically make the same plan to fit Hall in for the future, but he would bring tremendous value this season alone.
If the Islanders were to land and lock up Hall, who turns 29 early next season, they run the risk of his production drying up after he hits 30 and staring down an albatross for another half-decade. Plus, Anders Lee signed a 7 year, $49 million deal at Hall’s position in July, and Anthony Beauvillier is shaping up as a solid top-six left-wing as well. Cap space is an asset, and I’ll never complain about spending it to lock up a few years of elite talent. Short-term, however, acquiring Hall strictly as a rental could help keep the trade price lower, put the Islanders in a strong position to make a Stanley Cup run, and give them more cap flexibility in the future.
It’s obviously a pipe dream, but Barzal would be the best linemate Hall has ever played with and vice versa. His offensive impact alone could be enough to boost the Islanders into the elite tier of the league. They boast the league's best defense for the second season in a row but again find themselves in the bottom half of the league in goal scoring. The forward problems are deeper than one man can fix, but adding Hall would reshape the Isles forward group for the better.
Slotting Hall at 1LW with Barzal and Bailey/Eberle gives the Islanders far more depth at the wing, shifting Lee to the 2nd line, Beauvillier to the 3rd, and Kuhnhackl/Johnston as the extra men rather than needed pieces. The Islanders' third line woes would be alleviated a bit as well. 3C remains a need for the franchise, but landing Hall would allow them to run Beauvillier and Bailey/Eberle as the third line wingers without sacrificing any top-six scoring. Suddenly the Islanders can not only roll four lines effectively again, but they can do so without hamstringing their more talented forwards.
Hall — Barzal — Eberle
Lee — Nelson — Brassard
Beauvillier — Komarov — Bailey
Martin — Cizikas — Clutterbuck
I won’t speculate about how much Hall might cost, but I think it’s clear he would make the Islanders significantly better. Just like last season, the club’s biggest need is another true scoring threat. Adding someone like J.G. Pageau would fill the hole at 3C, but the Isles would remain a middling offensive team. Defense wins championships, but the last team to win the Cup without at least two 60+ point scorers in the regular season was the 2013–14 Kings.
Like last season when I argued the Islanders should be all-in if Artemi Panarin was available via trade, the team should do everything it can to capitalize on the current Cup window. Legitimate opportunities to win championships are few and far between for most NHL teams. The Islanders haven’t even sniffed a conference championship since 1993, but are well poised to take a big step this season.
There are valid reasons that Taylor Hall will almost certainly not be an Islander come February — his health, the price, the Devils’ potential reluctance to trade to a division rival — but the team should be willing to push some serious chips onto the table. Hall makes the Islanders a real threat to win the Stanley Cup, and there is no other player available of his caliber. Lamoriello should be engaged in talks with Ray Shero early and often, if nothing else to stay ahead of the curve when Hall goes elsewhere and the Islanders still need to improve the offense.
