The Islanders are caught in a Catch 22 with No. 91
“Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them.”
― Joseph Heller, Catch 22
With Garth Snow, it had been all three. Any Islanders fan who read Heller’s benchmark novel in the past five years would think this quote read as prophecy for the Isles hapless GM. Snow, a goaltender by trade who was handed a suit and the keys to the Islanders front office after retirement, has never excelled but made a habit of surviving. The Islanders were the fifth team for whom the University of Maine graduate minded the net, and he posted his best and worst career seasons on Long Island. He was, by all means, a mediocre goaltender.
He inherited mediocrity when he was named the Islanders general manager in 2006, and was put in charge of a team that had flirted with success but hadn’t achieved it in over a decade. Snow, true to form now in his 12th season as GM, has managed to rebuild the Isles into a perfectly average franchise. Snow steered the Isles into the playoffs in his first season, oversaw five consecutive last place finishes in the division, and now has put his club in the playoffs three times in the past five years. Nothing special, nothing good, but enough to stay afloat as the fourth longest tenured GM in the NHL.
Now though, after a 25-year run of hockey mediocrity, Snow is facing the moment that will define his career. On July 1, John Tavares will be a free agent. As the premier player on the market this year, Tavares will likely have nearly every team bidding for his services and every ounce of leverage. It’s hard to imagine he’ll settle on an eight-year contract with mediocre.
Snow has already dug his grave with Tavares, and John holds the shovel. He can bury Snow, or hop in with him. After drafting the cornerstone center first overall in 2009, Snow has failed to put together anything close to a Stanley Cup contender. Tavares, a loyal soldier, has expressed his desire to stay with the Islanders, but Snow’s continued inability to fill the roster with talent may force JT’s hand in leaving.
Through 40 games this year, the Islanders are 18th in the NHL, 8th in the Eastern Conference, and 6th in the Metropolitan Division. By most models, they have about a 50/50 shot at making the playoffs despite a roster with more holes than a Shia LaBeouf movie. To seriously contend this season, the Islanders would likely need one or two more forwards, two more defensemen, and potentially a goalie, but making moves to acquire those pieces would deplete the farm system and put a potentially Tavares-less future in jeopardy. And if the Islanders do not contend this season, there’s little reason to think that Tavares would sign on to play through the prime of his career for a franchise that has never shown dedication to winning. This leaves the Isles GM with a few options, none of which are smart and all of which damn the team in one way or another. I’d pity him if this wasn’t the result of a decade of his incompetence.
1. Sell the farm to contend now
After dealing Travis Hamonic for a first and two second round picks, the Islanders are uniquely situated to be buyers in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline. No other team has more picks in the first two rounds of this year’s draft, and with Kieffer Bellows dominating at the World Juniors, their prospect pool looks ripe for the picking once more. But this roster will not be an easy fix.
The Isles bottom six is a jumbled mess of non-production, featuring two of the worst contracts in the NHL. The defense is pitiful behind Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk, and they have, at best, half of one competent NHL goaltender, depending on what version of Jaro Halak feels like showing up (it’s been the Mr. Hyde version lately).
Retooling half of a roster cannot be done mid-season, and even if Snow makes a last ditch effort to revamp his team, they still might fall short of the postseason in the vicious Metro. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where Snow wheels and deals, shedding picks and prospects for a playoff push that’s ultimately in vain. Here, not only would the Isles lose Tavares, they’d lose any chance of picking up the pieces in his absence.
2. Stay the course
As a betting man, this is the option I’d put my money on. Despite AHL caliber defense and goaltending, Snow and Doug Weight seem steadfast in their assessment that the answer lies within the organization. We’re more likely to see a rotating door on defense of Sebastian Aho, Devon Toews, Dennis Seidenberg and Adam Pelech than a trade for Oliver Ekman-Larsson. It’s easier for Snow to do nothing and blame his underlings than take a risk, make a mistake and take the heat. He learned his lesson with the Thomas Vanek debacle.
But the Islanders have gone 5–9–2 since the start of December, and nosedived in the standings. The season overall has been average, but recent results suggest this is the start of a serious collapse. They’ve been outshot in 11 of their last 15 contests, they’ve allowed at least two goals in all but three games this season, and have yet to post a shutout. To win, the Islanders need to score at least three, and often four or five goals every night, something they’ve already proven is unsustainable. If Snow does nothing, the Islanders will miss the playoffs and John Tavares will walk, but he’ll be lambasted for his failure to act as the greatest Islander of this generation signs elsewhere without a fight.
3. FIRE SALE
We’ve come to a point where John Tavares’ contract is not the only concern for the Isles. Josh Bailey is in the final year of a five year deal with a $3.3 million cap hit. Not only is he due for a massive raise, he might be too good for the Islanders as well. Bailey has only worn one sweater in his career, but in a breakthrough season where he’s on pace for 100 points, he could likely test a market for his services that had never existed before. The Islanders could very well be facing a situation where two of their top line forwards leave for nothing in the summer.
Snow has put himself in such a terrible situation that his best move might be to sell Bailey and Tavares, perhaps Nelson as well, and embrace another long term rebuild. Losing John Tavares will never be the ideal situation, that’s obvious, but if the Islanders are out of contention by the trade deadline, they need to offer him an ultimatum. Sign or be traded, we can’t risk losing you for nothing. Hopefully the Isles will be able to pick up something like two firsts, a second, a top-tier and a mid-tier prospect. Then you run with your core of Barzal, Lee, Eberle and Leddy, give Ho-Sang, Bellows and Beauvillier full time roles, and hope that at least half of the seven picks the team has in the first two rounds this year pan out.
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Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, Garth Snow. You can deplete our farm to try to fix a fatally flawed roster and risk the close and distant future, or let go of Tavares and hope that you’ll have a shot to compete in another five years. Either way, it shouldn’t be Garth making these decisions in the near future.
