What happened at the NHL Trade Deadline?
Lou Lamoriello lives! After acquiring Matt Martin for Eamon McAdam in July 2018, the Islanders GM went 593 days before making his second trade and then waited for just eight more before pouncing again. When the clock struck 3 p.m. on Monday, signaling the official NHL Trade Deadline, the Islanders final tally looked like this:
IN: Andy Greene, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Jordan Schmaltz
OUT: 2020 1st round pick*, 2020 2nd, 2021 2nd, 2022 3rd*, David Quenneville, Matt Lorito
The 2020 1st will move to 2021 if the Isles end up with a top-three pick this year, and the 2022 3rd only goes to Ottawa if New York wins the Stanley Cup this year. All told, they filled two major holes without giving up any players or prospects, which is any GM’s dream on deadline day. The Islanders are better with Greene and Pageau than they were two weeks ago, and in an ideal world, they came at the expense of a pick in the mid-to-late 20s and two mid 50s selections. Quenneville has spent the majority of his professional career in the ECHL, so the Isles probably aren’t missing much with him gone, and Lorito is a career AHL player.
In a word, the deadline was fine. Greene and Pageau are both good-not-great players that fit needs and improve the team, but may not move the needle as much as people hope. Pageau, in particular, is coming over in the midst of an offensive breakout but isn’t likely to keep up his scoring pace on Long Island. Statistically, this season has so far been a major outlier for him.
From the 2015–16 season through 2018–19, Pageau occupied a third-line role in Ottawa before being catapulted to the top line on a talent-barren Sens squad this year. In those years, Pageau averaged 16:42 TOI per game, including about two minutes per night on the penalty kill and just under a minute of power play time. He was a solid bottom-six center who played reliably at all three strengths, but offense was not a big piece of his game.
Pageau has erupted offensively this season, but odds are that the player he was for the majority of his career is the player the Islanders will be getting. Thanks to a major uptick in minutes, opportunity, and shooting percentage — as well as more talented linemates — Pageau racked up 24 goals and 40 points in 60 games with the Sens this season. A career 9.3 percent shooter, the 27-year-old center has finished on 17.8 percent of his shots this season and scored as many goals in 60 contests as he did in his previous 136.
Realistically, the Islanders shouldn’t be leaning on Pageau in a third-line role to be a focal point of the offense. Most of his minutes this season have been between Brady Tkachuk and Connor Brown, so it’s hard to say that a Michael Dal Colle and Josh Bailey line represents an upgrade. Factor in that his minutes will be reduced and his shooting percentage is bound to come back to earth, and you’re looking at a very average offensive output from your 3C. Over the last three seasons, here are Pageau’s individual offensive ranks among 200 qualified centers (all stats per 60 minutes):
Points: 1.36 (146th)
Expected Goals: 0.59 (129th)
Scoring Chances: 5.82(171st)
High Danger Chances: 3.13 (115th)
Shots: 6.86 (106th)
Which is fine. In fact, it’s perfect for the Islanders right now. The third line pivot has been a rotating cast of non-performers this season, and if nothing else Pageau brings some stability and consistency to the position. The Islanders probably overpaid a bit to acquire and extend him, but not many other teams filled an organizational need with such a perfect fit yesterday. Even though the offense should regress, Pageau is an above-average defensive forward who helps drive possession and represents a massive upgrade over any internal answers the Islanders had at 3C. Think Nazem Kadri with less pop.
On the moves they made, the Islanders deserve high marks. Most of their division rivals improved, but the Islanders kept pace and should stay afloat in the playoff race with help from Pageau and Greene.
The biggest Isles-related trade of the day was one that fell apart. New York reportedly came close to swinging a deal for Zach Parise that would have sent Andrew Ladd to Minnesota, but it failed to come together before 3 p.m. Landing Parise would have been the cherry on top of the best Islanders deadline in a decade but for whatever reason, it didn’t end up happening. Parise would have provided some much-needed help on the wing, and shedding Ladd’s contract would have been a victory in itself.
Unfortunately in addition to missing on Parise, Lamoriello did not spring for one of the cheaper upgrades at wing. Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrick Marleau, Vlad Namestikov were all moved for mid-round picks and likely represent an offensive upgrade over the likes of Dal Colle, Komarov and Martin, but the front office didn’t bite.
Regardless, the Pageau addition means that when healthy, the Islanders will be one of the deeper teams in the league down the middle and have some flexibility on the wings as well.
At full strength, the bottom six probably shakes out as:
Bailey — Pageau — Dal Colle
Martin — Cizikas — Clutterbuck
Extras: Kuhnhackl, Komarov, Johnston, Koivula, Ladd
An additional wing would have been nice, but it’s clear the Islanders are better today than they were yesterday. That’s really all you can ask for at the deadline.
*Statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick*
