What the Rangers can learn from Jesse Puljujärvi
As the New York Rangers deal with the ramifications of trying to take the easy way out of a rebuild, it’s good to take stock around the league of similar situations. Occasionally even bad organizations make good decisions that result in proper talent development.
No independent talent evaluator is going to view the Edmonton Oilers as a model for prospect development. Similar to the Rangers’ insistence on trying to compete and build at the same time, the Oilers have shoehorned young players into the lineup in roles that didn’t properly suit them.
Look no further than former fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujärvi. As an 18-year-old, the Finn played 28 games at the NHL level. In those 28 games, the forward recorded eight points and played an average of 11:15 per game. Of that ice time, 49 seconds was his average amount of powerplay time.
As a team desperate to be competitive with Connor McDavid — the consensus best player in the world — the Oilers have constantly tried to force players into certain roles. This often results in players being miscast and put into a role that doesn’t particularly suit their style.
In Puljujärvi’s subsequent two seasons, the forward struggled to find his footing at the NHL level. The irony is, the Oilers took the necessary steps to try and get Puljujärvi’s game going, frequently playing him in five on five situations with either McDavid or Leon Drasaitl.
Yet, when Edmonton found itself in key game situations, it would instead opt to deploy a hero line with McDavid and Drasaitl together. That would drag down the rest of the lineup without a play driver to support less talented players. It’s a double-edged sword for the sake of creating offense.
But, back to Puljujärvi who ended up taking a full season away from the NHL. The Finn went back to his native country after his entry-level contract expired to reset himself mentally and professionally. Going back to Finland to build his confidence back up was absolutely imperative to the progress Puljujärvi made in the last calendar year.
Understanding how fragile player development is
There is an on-ice development component to every player’s career arc. Some players have to adapt their games at higher levels and find ways to contribute however they can. The mental challenge of acknowledging one’s own limitations in a new environment can often be a major barrier to personal growth.
Think about it like this, for someone like Puljujärvi who was a fourth overall pick, he’d always been the best or one of the best players on his team his entire life. From the first time Puljujärvi played hockey as a child until his draft year, he was an engine, bigger and faster than everyone else on the ice, able to dominate on raw talent.
Then, suddenly halfway across the world in another country where he doesn’t speak the language, he’s being asked to do things he’s never done before against better competition than he’s ever played against. For players with elite amateur profiles, this can be an insurmountable barrier to success.
Some players just cannot adapt and find a role at the NHL level. That’s why it’s the best and most competitive league in the world. Its player base is entirely composed of guys who were the best players on their teams their entire lives.
Puljujärvi, as a 17-year-old playing against men in the top six, recorded 28 points in 50 games. Then, in Edmonton, without a ton of power-play ice time, his point total dipped.
That’s one of the keys to understanding player development. So much comes down to a player’s confidence and the landing spot. For Puljujärvi’s entire life, he was recording points and driving play with the puck on his stick. Then, suddenly, with fewer points next to his name on the stat sheet, how he always defined success was no longer there.
Breaking through that mental barrier of points scored as the only measure of success is difficult. I’ve previously written about how using points as a barometer is misleading because so much of hockey comes down to luck. There are so many dynamic variables that go into scoring a goal, it’s not entirely fair to sum a player up in just goals and assists.
So, without goals or assists, these young players need to alter the way they view their performance. One trick I do on occasion is just tally how many times a younger player touches the puck and completes a pass. It’s simple, but these smaller mechanics within the game reflect mindset and confidence.
If a player isn’t scoring but still getting in position to win puck battles and transition to or maintain offensive possession, they are helping the team win. However, if said player isn’t around the puck often or tries to get rid of it as soon as they possess it, that can be a sign that said player is lacking confidence and is just trying to avoid making a mistake.
Since they’re trying to avoid messing up, they stop doing what got them to the NHL. Instead of trying to make plays, they’re just trying to stay out of the coach’s dog house. Since they’re not producing, the coach drops them down the lineup, and the opportunity to build confidence shrinks further.
That’s how fragile this entire process is, once a player loses their confidence, especially a younger one, that confidence can never come back and permanently alter the trajectory of a career. This isn’t a reflection of a player’s talent or ability but of the organization’s talent development process.
The flip side
Of course, after Puljujärvi’s year and a half over in Finland, he did return to the Oilers. In the abbreviated 2021 season, Puljujärvi had the fifth most average ice time of any forward on the Oilers in all situations. With renewed confidence, it wasn’t a surprise that Puljujärvi’s play also improved.
Puljujärvi’s improved offensive play driving is a clear sign of improved confidence. In the two seasons since Puljujärvi’s return from Finland, the forward has improved his offensive chance creation.
The visualization above shows where scoring chances come from when Puljujärvi is on the ice. The upper half of the rink for offense, the lower for defense. So when Puljujärvi is on the ice, he’s creating more dangerous scoring chances and conceding fewer on the other end than the league average.
Yes, it is important to note that Puljujärvi is riding shotgun with McDavid and getting time on the first power play as a net-front player. But, the team put its marquee draft pick in a position to build his confidence.
At one point, it genuinely seemed like Puljujärvi would stay over in Europe playing professional hockey and not return to the NHL. 18 months is a long time to be away, but the Oilers waited the player out and took every step possible to help him once he returned.
How the Rangers can learn from this
Unfortunately for the Rangers, the team doesn’t have 18 months to let Alexis Lafrenière or Kaapo Kakko to go find themselves in another country. Foolish as it was, the team pushed chips towards the middle of the table based on an assumed boost of production without taking steps to foster that process.
The organization penciled both Lafrenière and Kakko into roles in the top six in hopes that better linemates would help build up each player’s confidence.
It’s encouraging to see that Kakko is the forward with the fifth-highest average ice time. It’s also good that coach Gerard Gallant stapled the second overall pick to Artemi Panarin’s hip in hopes of spurring some offensive production.
Last year, Kakko was a strong driver of play at five on five with an expected goals percentage of 55.7 percent. This means that of the scoring chances at five on five, the Rangers created more dangerous scoring chances than the opposition when Kakko was on the ice. It resulted in 55% of the actual goals at 5 on 5.
On the other hand, Lafrenière has ice time comparable to a bottom-six forward. While not as strong at five on five as last year as an 18-year-old, Lafrenière was at 47% of expected goals. The Rangers scored 48 percent of actual goals when Lafrenière was on the ice last season.
This year, Lafrenière is at 45% of expected goals, a slight dip. This likely is in part because the team as a whole is not driving play. There is not a single player this season who’s in the positive of expected goals using Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model.
But, pushing him down the lineup is counterintuitive to the team’s long and short-term goals. It cannot win a Stanley Cup if Lafrenière and Kakko are not legitimate star players.
In Conclusion
The Rangers are at a weird inflection point as an organization. The clock was probably sped up a little too much in the past six months with some of the roster decisions made. In particular, because both Kakko and Lafrenière were suppositions instead of locks for production.
Right now, there is no major crisis in regards to either. They’re both still extremely young and in the growth process. Statistically speaking, the beginning of an NHL player’s peak statistical production is usually 24-years-old.
That is several years away from now for both Kakko and Lafrenière but the high point of that production might be lower when it finally does happen. The Rangers need to find a way to simulate the same type of growth Puljujärvi did during his sabbatical in Finland.
At this point, Puljujärvi has the confidence to take the puck on his stick and drive to the net whenever he has space. While Puljujärvi probably won’t ever accumulate the point totals a team expects from the fourth overall pick, he is still a productive NHL player who works on the first line.
If the Rangers are ever going to win a Stanley Cup, the organization needs to fundamentally re-evaluate its talent development practices. Use your established NHL producers as help for your younger players to build their confidence.
So much of this process is tied to the psyche of college-aged individuals. Until Kakko and Lafrenière feel confident enough to play like they’re capable of, the Rangers will be stuck in a holding pattern. Stimulating confidence has to be the Rangers’ biggest priority and yes, right now, that is more important than winning individual games.
