Here’s why the Yankees need to extend Masahiro Tanaka
The Japanese righty is entering the final season of his seven-year contract
Handing pitchers big contracts has often blown up in the face of teams, but Masahiro Tanaka has been worth every penny for the New York Yankees, who gave the Japanese righty a seven-year deal worth $155 million in 2014. At that time, the Yankees envisioned Tanaka becoming a staple in the rotation.
He’s done it.
In his six seasons with New York, Tanaka owns a record of 75–43 in 163 starts. He has a 3.75 ERA and boasts an impressive strikeout to walk ratio of 4.74 to one.
He’s been tough as nails in the playoffs, too. He has eight career post-season starts, going 5–3 with a 1.76 ERA. But qualitatively, he’s remembered for two dazzling performances in the 2017 playoffs, namely his seven shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians in Game 3 of the ALDS when the Yankees were on the brink of elimination. He repeated the feat in the ALCS against the Houston Astros in Game 5, putting New York up 3–2 in the series.
But now Tanka is entering his final contract year.
He turns 32 in November and, should he hit the open market, he’ll likely see a nice payday.
That said, it makes sense for both the Yankees and Tanaka for both parties to agree to an extension.
Tanaka’s post-season clutch is arguably the biggest reason. Yankees starters have had their share of struggles in the playoffs, which is what led to throwing the kitchen sink at Gerrit Cole last December. In the playoffs, Tanaka has really been the only reliable guy.
In all post-season starts beginning with the 2015 Wild Card game against Houston, Tanaka has gone at least five innings in each game. Counting that game, the Yankees have played 28 playoff games in the last five seasons. On only three occasions has a pitcher gone inning or more, with none of the doing it more than once.
Tanaka’s interest in an extension is simple, too. Look at the market for free agent starting pitchers during the last two offseasons, excluding Stephen Strasburg’s decision to opt out and re-sign with the Washington Nationals after their World Series title.
Patrick Corbin inked a seven-year deal with the Nationals during the 2018 offseason and Hyun-jin Ryu signed a four-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays are two that stand out. Other than that, no pitcher has really broken the bank on the open market.
Tanaka also would not want to find himself in a situation like Dallas Keuchel was in 2019: Out of baseball for months and settling for a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. The gamble paid off, as he got a three-year deal worth $55.5 million with the Chicago White Sox this offseason, but you can imagine Tanaka would want to avoid taking that risk.
What could the extension look like? Take Keuchel’s for example. He was 32 at the time of his free agency, as is Tanaka. Their numbers are also pretty similar, too.
In eight seasons, Keuchel has appeared in 211 games and owns a career 3.67 ERA. He’s also been pretty good in the playoffs, posting a 4–2 record with a 3.47 ERA over 12 games.
The Yankees could use Keuchel’s contract as the basis for Tanaka’s extension. A three-year deal would tie Tanaka to the Bronx through him turning 34. Instead of going four years, the Yankees could look to sweeten the pot on the money terms. A three-year, $66 million extension would pay Tanaka an average of $22 million per season, just about what he makes per year on his current deal. And bean counting aside, the Yankees also offer Tanaka a realistic shot at a title.
